If $SPCX had closed at or above this level (30% over the $135 IPO price) on 5 of the 10 trading days before the Q2 report, roughly another 10% of insider shares would have unlocked early. The stock stayed well below it, so those shares were deferred to the Dec 8 full expiry.
How much $SPCX stock can actually trade, and when more arrives. The float started near 5% at the IPO and has grown with each tranche since August. The next big step comes after the Q3 report, ending with full expiry on Dec 8, 2026. More supply meeting the same demand is the core bear case; strong earnings absorbing that supply is the bull case.